Thesis, Undergraduate (BS Applied Mathematics) -- U. P. in Mindanao

This study explored the capacity of the Box-Jenkins method to model the unemployment rates data of Region XI. The existing quarterly data from 1983 to 2005gathered by National Statistics Office (NSO) in their Labor Force Survey (LFS) was utilized. The objective of this study was to develop a model that describes the pattern of unemployment and to check the accuracy of this model in estimating original observations. The data from 1983 to 2004 was used to develop a model that will give the good fit and forecast of data with the least error as possible. Results showed that two models were found statistically adequate and valid. Forecasts for the year 2005 was generated and compared using the two models that were identified as tentatively adequate. These models match the pattern of rates for the year 2005. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that one of these models has the smaller forecasts error and closer fit of forecast observations in comparison with actual data. Also, this study indicated that Box-Jenkins method may construct reliable estimates on the unemployment rates of Region XI. The model obtained in this study is only valid in short-term forecasting.